Saturday, 24 September 2011

Trend for 24th of September 2011


Hi trend traders and independent market analysts. Today I wanted to remind you about importance of 123 pattern in your trading. I hope you noticed that very often at the end of the move (in a range or a trend) we have some reversal patterns. In most cases they would be: head and shoulders or 123 structure. I wait for those patterns near important support and resistance levels or at the end of a swing. If the move is strong and continues for a long time you will want to search for a reversal on daily or even weekly charts. If it is a short term (one week or a few day move) you would be willing to see the pattern on 4 or 1 hour charts. 

I want you to look at eur/aud daily chart and see two 123 patterns there. Both of them formed at the end of strong moves and presented unique opportunities for those who like trading reversals to enter reversal trades and jump on to a new developing move. As eur/aud tends to develop big moves you would definitely have to watch the pair for possible reversal patterns at important support and resistance levels.

See also:

Disclaimer
Trading financial markets carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information on the blog is of educational nature and cannot be considered as advice, recommendation or signals to trade in any financial markets.

Friday, 23 September 2011

Trend for 23rd of September 2011


Hi fans of market trend analysis. Today I just wanted to talk a little about selling breakouts of support levels. I will take gbp/usd as an example. You can see that the pair has been falling for almost a month and is close to very important support now. You can also see that the pair reversed today and this may signal the bottom in the pair. But the pair has been falling and you can see in the chart how you could have successfully sold support breakouts on a number of occasions. 

You could have taken the first short position at 1.6355 level, right after the pair formed a peak at resistance of around 1.6600 level. As the down trend progressed one could have gone short at 1.6211 (not a perfect short example), then at 1.5900 level and finally at 1.5700 level. As always, it is best to wait when the pair starts ranging after a move and forms some kind of a bottom. Then one could wait for the bottom to be broken and sell a breakout when it occurs. I usually say that Asian sessions are for ranging and European and American ones for breakouts and trending. 

Do your own analysis about it and you will see. Hope you enjoyed this short post.

See also:


Disclaimer
Trading financial markets carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information on the blog is of educational nature and cannot be considered as advice, recommendation or signals to trade in any financial markets.

Wednesday, 21 September 2011

Forex factory

I decided to call this post Forex factory. I got the idea from the famous Forex forum under the same name. It sounds cool and shows exactly what it takes to become a successful Forex trader. You have to undergo a series of processes in the same manner as some product undergoes various stages in a factory until it goes for sale. Those who have attempted to trade stocks, commodities or Forex know that it is not easy to be a profitable trader. Most traders get burnt within two months of their trading. Most of them decide to leave trading and make money or realize themselves in some other way. I remember myself and my first steps in Foreign Exchange market. I repeated the statistics and lost my initial deposit it 2 months. I almost left the thing, but after a few months having seen some repetitive technical structures in the market I decided to study the thing more carefully. After some time I was able to come back to the market by trading trends and swings with a friend of mine and this time we managed to make money, not to lose it. In the post I want to share some of the things that I believe are necessary to become a successful forex trader. I guess that for those who are not new these processes in �Forex factory� will not be new, but for some it will be, so let me start.

Forex factory rule number 1 � understand the basics of the market

 

Anybody who wants to be a successful Forex trader should understand the fundamental part of Forex. One should know how this market operates, what causes prices to change, have understanding on what kind of orders exist and which type of orders are best at various conditions market can be in, the biggest size of position that one can take without risking to lose too much, best times for trading, closing and leaving open positions and a few more things. I remember my friend opening a real Forex account with one of European Forex brokers. At one time he had usd/jpy pair open and wanted to close it. However, the platform he was using was rather complicated. So, instead of closing the order, he opened another one. My friend did not know how to close his position. Finally he had to phone company�s help desk and after some twenty minutes of talk his order was finally closed. I believe he was lucky that the thing did not happen during some news release. Having one standard lot open with 2 thousand bucks in the deposit and not knowing how to close it could be a fatal mistake at the time when news comes out. So, you can blow off your account just because you do not understand a few basic things about Forex trading.



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Forex factory rule number 2 � have a thoroughly tested and profitable trading system

 

If you want to be a successful Forex trader you must develop or simply get a tested and reliable trading system that could be used long term. I am sure that with time you will be able to develop and use as many trading strategies as you want, but when you start you should master one. I would really advise you to try the system for at least two months and if that is possible try to backtest its� performance for twelve or twenty four months. If the system is not profitable within that period of time, do not deceive yourself that it will be successful. Just drop it and search for another one. If it is profitable just go ahead and use it trading in small lots until you feel comfortable.

Forex fatory rule number 3 � develop a trading plan

 

Ask any trader who has been in the market for five or more years and is able to trade profitably and he/she will tell you a well developed trading plan is a must. A plan can remind you about the direction that you take, goals you want to achieve and the way you are going to trade. It must include: frequency of your trades, rules about entering and exiting the market, what market conditions should be present in order for you to execute a trade. It should also remind you how you are going to solve complicated situations in trading; let�s say when the market starts going against you. It must also remind you how you should behave when you have a few bad trades one after another and maybe even a few good trades one after another.

Forex factory rule number 4 � stick to your plan

 

After developing your plan you should stick to it and follow it with strict discipline. Other things will not work long term if you do not follow the plan that you have made or you make too many exceptions to it. Your trading strategy could be the best in the world, you can have a terrific plan and excellent understanding of fundamentals, but if you do not follow those and start making spontaneous trading decisions you will surely burn your account. Succesful trading does not start with improvisation. It might come later, but if you improvise all the time you will probably become a gambler, not a trader (and a bad one too!). Simply follow your plan blindly and only when you see that something repetitively does not work, then you make adjustments to your plan. Just do not make those adjustments every day for your trading plan will have too many points, which will become too difficult to follow. So, have a plan and keep to it. 

Forex factory rule number 5 � learn to control your risk

 

If you want to stay long in Forex market and finally become a profitable trader, you should also have a risk management system. You should have it outlined in your trading plan, but as it is very important I decided to mention it as a separate point. Your deposit is the tool you work with to make more money. You cannot trade without money. Before you can make money, you should learn how to protect the amount that you have. Read any article on risk management (in trading) and you will always find that the rule of not risking more than two percent of your capital on any given trade. I would say that you should not risk more than one percent when you are starting. As the time goes one you will be able to increase the percentage. In the meantime, learn to manage your risk.



If you want to see and experience what real investing in financial markets such as Forex, stocks and commodities is all about I recommend trying innovative social investment platform of Etoro. Initial deposits are as low as a few hundred bucks. The best dealer I have heard of so far!
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I hope the article was useful. It cannot reflect all the necessary things that one should know as a Forex trader, but I believe it conveys the most important things. You should stick to the points till they become your second nature and the process of trading becomes automated. With time you will develop your own trading style and strategies, but before profits come you will have to undergo a painful learning process. Good luck in staying in Forex factory and becoming a profitable Forex trader.

See also:

Original Forex factory forum
RSI
MACD
Swing trading
Disclaimer
Trading financial markets carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information on the blog is of educational nature and cannot be considered as advice, recommendation or signals to trade in any financial markets.

Tuesday, 20 September 2011

Trend for 20th of September 2011


Hi, trend and day traders. I have been looking at aud/jpy pair today. As you may see from the charts it (as well as other Yen pairs) has been falling lately. Yen has been growing strong due to weakening oil prices, which may fall once again this week. This maybe good news for Yen and US dollar and bad news for commodities and commodity currencies such as Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and New Zealand dollar. It should be good for an average consumer like you and me who are influenced by inflation that has been rising due to printing of money and high prices in commodities. 

As you may see oil is at some short term resistance now and will probably continue falling. This could influence aud/jpy and it will fall with the commodity too. However, I see some support coming at around 77.00 level (in aud/jpy) and 75 (in oil). I would wait for a reversal pattern at around 77.00 level (head and shoulders or 123 structure) on 5 or 15 minute chart around the area. If you study eur/jpy or gbp/jpy or other Yen pairs you will see that most currencies are at multi year lows against Japanese Yen. This tells me that the trend may change soon and Yen will collapse. 

See also:


Disclaimer
Trading financial markets carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information on the blog is of educational nature and cannot be considered as advice, recommendation or signals to trade in any financial markets.