Tuesday, 25 September 2012

List of short, long term and other types of investment strategies for beginners and even retirees



People are different. Their personal differences influence their work, leisure time, long and short term goals and even the ways they invest. A lot of folks want to find out the best trading strategy and they spend a lot of time in various investmentand speculation forums browsing through various trading that are there. From my personal perspective I can say that you have to spend some time experimenting on a few strategies before you finally find something that you feel comfortable with and the one that gives you a satisfying return. Some have too unrealistic expectations regarding trading and practicing various trading systems will open their eyes to the fact. It will take time for you to master various aspects in this or that system, but when you will finally do you will be able to introduce various filters that will help you to filter out various false signals pertaining to your trading strategy. Let us look through some of the best known strategies with their advantages and disadvantages. 



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The most famous �buy and hold� way to invest

This is probably the best known and talked about investing strategy, which has been losing its� attractiveness lately. The one who practices this type of trading system would keep his investment portfolio the same for years without making major changes. Warren Buffet would probably be the best example of a person who buys and holds his securities for a lifetime. The idea with this trading method is not that you buy some shares and forget about it. No, you would periodically buy more of the same kind of securities (adding to your position). Traders who use this way to trade believe that markets will continue rising even after the worst possible collapses and the best companies or goods or any other types of securities will recover and those who invest in them will prosper long term. Having made right choices one might become incredibly rich within a decade or so. 

However, there is a dark side to this type of investment too. If you do this with high leverage and in a down trending market you might lose all of your money. Even the best companies may go bankrupt in a period of ten or fifteen years. Do analysis and you will see that it is very realistic. Some shares that gave traders millions of profits years ago are no longer on the stock exchange. You will have to spend a lot of time studying companies and their future perspective to compete in the global market long term and only then to make a decision to buy the shares of it and hold. However, remember that there is no such thing as good as secure investment nowadays. What is good today might be worthless in a few years time. It may actually become a good �sell and hold�. 

Dividend investing method

This way of investing is based on buying the shares that have high yield dividends. One would have to look through his investment portfolio about one time a year. A trader using this type of trading system expects that other traders will notice these high yielding dividend shares and start buying them and as a result of this the shares will rise. There are a variety of approaches to this way of trading. Some would select the best stocks of Dow, choose ten that give the biggest dividends and hold them for a year. You have to re-invest the dividends that you get though. You have to learn how to make money from the rise in these stocks, because merely getting dividends for one year may not be enough to cover losses if you entered market at wrong time (as well as taxes, transaction costs and a few other things).  Dividend trading system is quite similar to carry trades in Forex market. By this I mean buying those currencies that have high interest rates against those that have very low ones. This could be buying AUD against JPY or NZD against USD. You make some money just by keeping your long position for some time. If you want make big money you need to learn to predict price action in advance and go with the trend from the moment it starts. 

Investing in indexes strategy

Depending on your investment expectations investing in indexes might be a good trading system. We know that if you simply buy indexes such as �Standard & Poor's 500�, Nasdaq Composite or NYSE Composite you will mostly outperform most of investment funds. Those that initially introduced this investing strategy assumed that markets are effective and you will surely get your return sooner or later. Unfortunately, most recent volatile moves in the markets make one doubt safety of such a system to invest into markets. One could mix it with the two above trading strategies as well as the principle of buying low. 

Investing into certain market sectors system

Everybody knows that concentration is key to achieving success wherever you expect good results. Those that are not satisfied with average results and want bigger returns will have to concentrate specific market sectors: medicine, finance, tech, growth or value stocks and etc. This again will work best if you find the bottom after a fall in a sector and start buying from there. Technical analysis (supportand resistance) might help you to do this. On the whole, you will be able to achieve extraordinary results if you learn how to identify potential lows (where you should start buying) and highs (where you should get out of the market). 

Value investing technique

This type of investing is a prerogative of fundamental analysis. Investors want to buy shares that are undervalued according one or a few factors of fundamental analysis. Unfortunately, it is not easy to decide which fundamental aspects are so important that they have to be taken into consideration in terms of investing. Some stress some things; others see importance in other factors. There is a popular way of saying that stocks are undervalued if their price is lower than total price of all assets that specific company has. However, nowadays most investors would disagree with the idea. More and more investors would say that intellectual power as well as progressive work force is no less (maybe more) important than material assets of a company. They tend to pay more attention to P/E ratio (price earnings ratio) to decide whether the company is undervalued or overvalued. 

Growth investing as opposite to value investing

A growth investor would not concentrate on whether the company is undervalued and does not reflect the real value, but on fast growth of a particular company he is interested in. Growth of a company is usually determined by studying how fast a company grows its� profits and income. The key here is not only to find a fast growing company, but also the one that has not exhausted its� growth potential yet. Those that are not trained will probably notice a growth company at the end of its growth and expansion. That�s what the crowd usually does. It joins the move at the end of it. You have to notice a potential where nobody sees it yet. 

The problem with investing in growth companies is that you never know when the growth will stop. Investing in a company that has been growing for over a decade maybe risky, because it can be at the peak of its� growth. When growth investors start feeling that the company has exhausted its� potential they start closing their positions and shares of the company collapse. They company might try to lure investors by offering attractive dividends, but it will probably not tempt growth investors to come back as they are interested in profiting from a growth of a stock, not from dividends. They risk more, but they also reap more. 

Investing into securities that you understand

By this I do not mean only investing methods that you understand, but the companies which you understand, trust and believe have a potential to grow. If you work for a company that is on the Stock Exchange you are surely aware of the state your company is in: profits, strategy, marketing, sales and possibly future perspective. This may lead you to invest or refrain from investing. Avoid companies that you do not understand. If you are not a tech guy you would probably not tech stocks. Of course, if you are a trader that follows technical analysis, looks for areas of supply and demand you could probably trade any security you want. 

If you are an investor you should learn to concentrate on markets or market sectors that you understand. If you understand what influences oil prices you might consider doing analysis of all major oil stocks. Then picking those that might be undervalued now and have great potential to grow! You can also do analysis of various commodities and decide which ones you want to invest to. However, you should not invest only in one type of stocks, but try to diversify. But be sure you know what you are doing! 

Speculating, day trading and scalping

People have been speculating in the markets for a long time. A speculator tries to profit from price fluctuations and he will never apply strategies such as buy and hold or invest into companies just because they pay big dividends. No, they want to see change in prices and benefit from that. At the sight of the slightest market reversal a speculator would run out of the market like a thief. Well, I am exaggerating a little, but a smart speculator would never watch his profits being eaten by market sharks and doing nothing. He would move his stop in the direction of a prevailing trend till his stop is taken out. Day traders would not bother keeping their trades open for more than one day�s session. And scalpers could open hundred positions during the day. As you may understand this kind of trading strategy requires a lot of skill. I haven�t heard of many who are able to do it.



If you want to make extra money and are ready to trade Forex, futures, indexes and stocks I recommend Etoro. 


Final thoughts

Investing requires skill, goal setting, understanding of one is doing and a lot of patience. Success comes only when one is ready to handle it. Investing community has a lot of traders who practice various investing strategies and you will find very successful investors who are follow fundamental analysis as well as those who rely on technical. Although they are different anyone who wants to have long term profits has to cut one�s losses and increase one�s profits. Have this in mind when you will be considering which investing strategy to choose. 

Good luck trading. If you liked the post I would also be happy if you gave a plus on Google+, tweeted, liked it on Facebook and other social platforms. Have a nice day. 

Vytas.

Disclaimer
Trading financial markets carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information on the blog http://trend0.blogspot.com/ is of educational nature and cannot be considered as advice, recommendation or signals to trade in any financial markets.

Wednesday, 19 September 2012

Trading supply and demand



I believe most of us are familiar with the terms of supply and demand in economy. These help to determine prices for goods, services and also securities. If a lot of people are willing to buy some product, the price of it will increase. If, on the other hand a lot of folks would be willing to sell some product (get rid of it) the price of it will fall. If these two are in equilibrium the prices will probably stay at the same level for some time or fluctuate a bit. The principle of supply and demand is important in financial markets too. A smart investor or speculator will look for areas where demand increases and supply decreases to start buying and for areas where supply increases and demand decreases to start selling. 


Now, this is easier said, than done, but for a trained eye it is not so difficult to see a shift between supply and demand in technical charts. When people ask me where I will start selling Euro or Australian dollar, or any other security I answer:�When more sellers will step in�. I do not have pre set targets for starting selling or buying when a level is reached. I might take profit at some point, but it does not mean I will start actively buying or selling. Why? Why should I if I do not see big boys changing the course? If the price is constantly rising you should not think about being bearish. The demand for security is still great. So why sell? Don�t. If you do you will only freeze your capital and wait impatiently for prices to reverse. It might happen soon, but if you start selling without any signs of reversal in supply and demand you are merely gambling, not investing. This is how lots of fund managers lost billions. They trusted too much their approach and predictions and became bearish or bullish too early. They started catching �falling knives� and got hurt. Do not follow their example. Better train your eyes to see what dominates in the market: supply or demand and trade accordingly. You also have to wait and learn to see when supply gives way to demand and vice versa.

Support and resistance versus supply and demand 

Some people like watching support and resistance areas instead. It is ok, but not enough. These merely indicate what happened some time ago. Conditions might have changed and these areas may no longer be valid. Take as an example eur/usd pair. If you study daily charts you will see that according to classical technical analysis definition 1.3000 was a strong resistance. If you were going long in eur/usd it might have been a good level for you to exit your longs and have nice profit. On the other hand, it does not mean you have to start selling there. Why? Like I said, conditions might have changed and this area might not be resistance now. Taking into account the statement of FED that they are planning to keep interest rates as low as they are now till 2015 you might have more bullishness in Euro and much bearishness in US dollar in the nearest future. You see how the price pierced through 1.3000 level without stopping. What about our classical technical analysis rules: support becomes resistance? Well, it sometimes works, it sometimes doesn�t. You have to learn to follow price action and see the actual (current) levels of change between supply and demand and only then become a bull or a bear.  

How do you see that?

If a price is in a free fall you should not start buying. What you have to wait for is significant bounces that stop prices from falling further. It happens that when prices break through some level and we have very strong move (up or down). It is pointless to resist the move by going in the opposite direction. Better stay with the move. However, as time goes one you start seeing rallies against a prevailing move. If the price has been falling you suddenly see strong buying coming at certain levels. Do not mistake those with taking of profits. No. You have to watch how these happen. Long bullish candles would indicate that buyers start coming in. A lot of small candles would mostly mean that there has been some profit taking and this will definitely not stop prices from falling. 

However, one bullish move up will probably not change the direction so fast. Sellers will again step in and prices will resume their fall. However, with the next low formed you will probably notice more buyers coming in. Prices will run up again. Sellers will probably step in again, but this time there will be fewer of them. Depending on the strength of the downward move and inertia the process can continue for some more time till you will start seeing higher highs and higher lows. This would be a sign that demand is bigger now than supply and bulls have taken over control from bears. 

The important point here is how the price leaves certain area when the prices are still going down. You want to see big (really big bullish candles), not a cluster of small ones. Time comes and you start seeing these candles. Price suddenly rallies upwards. These are first signs of buying. It does not mean the bearish trend is over. You want to see more. After some time you see more of these candles. And more�.! And finally bulls take over control from bears and prices explode upwards. (Look at gbp/jpy example below)

You can also look at the examples below (eur/usd pair) how bulls try to resist bearish trend and finally win. However, when you see a bearish trend you have to be on the selling side, not on the buying. You can see in the first chart how Euro bulls try to stand up, but they are standing only on one leg. I want to see a security standing on both legs before start real buying. That�s what happens in the second chart. 

Applying this supply and demand idea in practice

At the end of a major move you will probably see a lot of bears and bulls in one place. Finally the shift of power will take place. What you really want to do is to start playing from bull�s side if the trend is becoming bullish and from the bear�s side if the trend is becoming bearish. 

If we take example with eur/usd in the second chart (look up) you see how accumulation takes place in the pair. Bulls coming in with a lot of buying pressure causing bears to resist or simply close their positions. The price for some time is still in horizontal trajectory with very small upward direction. That�s when you have to start buying, because at some point pressure upwards will become so strong that the price will simply shoot up very fast and it will be not very logical to start buying there. 

So, when you see prices coming down to the place where buying takes place start buying and placing your stop orders below the most recent lows. Take a few orders, close one at the previous high and keep the other one open. Accumulate your position and go up with the price till you start seeing the shift of power again. Then reverse the process.



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Ok, I hope the article was useful. I will surely expand the topic soon with more examples and more ideas from most recent trends in the market. Good luck. 

If you liked the post I would also be happy if you gave a plus on Google+, tweeted, liked it on Facebook and other social platforms. Have a nice day. 

Vytas.

See also:

Disclaimer
Trading financial markets carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information on the blog http://trend0.blogspot.com/ is of educational nature and cannot be considered as advice, recommendation or signals to trade in any financial markets.